Monday, January 09, 2006

We Don't Buy Media Polls of Big Lead By Harper

We have a hard time at Langley Free Press believing the polls quoted out there by the Lemming media. They promote a 6 to 8 or more percentage point lead and election win by the Conservatives. Some even suggest a majority! We reject the premise of Harper absolutely winning the election because of the following facts. We say look at the polls carefully. Specifically we stick by the CPAC –SES Nightly poll which is daily updated and posted daily on our sidebar to the right. Let’s look at the real facts specifically using the SES poll;

They poll 1200 Canadians nightly. Their poll last election was darn accurate.
Presently the Conservatives are shown to be winning in Canada by 3% based on popular vote.
The election is about winning seats not general votes.
Regionally Atlantic Canada is a rout for the Liberals by almost 28%. Atlantic will be solid Liberal.
Regionally Western Canada is a rout for the Conservatives by 18%. West will be solid Conservative.
In Quebec the Bloc leads both Libs & Cons by 27% to 32%. Quebec will be solid Bloc. But face it seats like Westmount will go Liberal not Conservative.
Seat Rich Ontario, the key, is tied. But face it Urban will go Liberal and Conservative will win Rural. The real question is how many?
But who will get the most seats in Ontario. That is the key to winning a minority Government.
Of the 1200 polled 18% are undecided. We predict that they will mainly go Liberal!
Even in the West many urban centers will vote Liberal. Western Liberal/Conservative split in urban/rural seats except in Alberta.
The poll shows that both Martin & Harper are tied in performance and as best PM.
Finally women, emigrant based voters and strong charter supporters still don’t feel good about Harper.

Summary: Ontario is where the minority government will be won by either Harper or Martin. This country will be split down a lot of middles. Atlantic versus West. French Canada versus English Canada. Urban versus rural. Minorities versus mainstream. And finally philosophies and values, essentially Liberal versus Conservative. We predict this will be a close race on seats more so than on population. Who will win? It’s very tough to absolutely say who right now. But, it will be tight and a minority. Our prediction: we bet on the Liberals because ultimately when it gets tough the Liberals always seem to rally from behind.

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